United Kingdom
Source: www.morningstar.co.uk

The year is only a day old and we've already had a significant geopolitical event, the expansion of the BRICS to include five more countries.


Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have now been joined by Iran, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and Egypt. This would have been 11 nations but Argentina, under new leadership, withdrew its application in late December. The bloc can now claim more countries than the G7, its rival on the world stage.

The expansion has been due for months, following a meeting in South Africa in late August 2023 to expand the BRICS, an acronym that has been in official existence since 2010, but discussed widely since as far back as 2001 as the "BRIC" nations. The acronym will now be unwieldy so BRICS+ is the chosen appellation for now.

South Africa was the last to join the group and has been pushing for expansion for reasons of its own. Although perhaps more acceptable diplomatically than Russia, it's become isolated after accusations it sold arms to Russia. In any case, Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as the continent's pre-eminent economy.

BRICS versus the West?

This approach will dismay investors who support globalisation because it pits the West against the rising emerging world. While reflecting the new political realities in promoting Saudi Arabia and UAE to the club, the inclusion of Iran will unsettle Washington's power brokers as we enter the US election year. China and India are the real big hitters in this group now, with ambitions to topple the US as the dominant economic superpower. India is on better relations with the US than China though, so you can't characterise the BRICS as entirely hostile to American power.

Still, you could argue that Russia's continued inclusion in the power bloc, as the two-year anniversary of the Ukraine invasion approaches, is more damaging to the group's credibility.

It's no coincidence that three BRIC+ members are also part of oil cartel OPEC.

OPEC, which sets oil prices, has long operated as part of the global financial system, and boasts regimes like Venezuela, Iraq and Iran within its influence. The geographical specifics of where the oil is has long been part of the west's drive to diversify its energy supply, though Russia's war in Europe showed just how fragile the status quo truly was.

Angola has just left OPEC, while Venezuela is eyeing up a neighbouring country's oil reserves.

Back in the investing world, ESG investors have an interest in this too. These kinds of polarised power bases are nothing new in world history – think of the Cold War idea of "spheres of influence". It's harder to justify investing in say, India, the world's largest democracy, if it has trade ties with Iran and Russia.

UAE
Source: www.thenationalnews.com

The expansion of the Brics bloc to include Saudi Arabia and the UAE is expected to offer new investment opportunities for the Arab world's two largest economies while growing the group's influence globally, analysts said.

Saudi Arabia along with the UAE, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia joined Brics on January 1, doubling its membership to 10, with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa the original members.

The addition of the two major Gulf economies to the bloc will "increase the level of linkages between the region and the rest of the world and they will improve capacity to attract investment," Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund's director for the Mena region, told The National.

"Expansion of the Brics multilateral bloc to include Saudi Arabia and UAE augurs extremely well amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges confronting the world economy," Ullas Rao, assistant professor of finance at Edinburgh Business School of Heriot-Watt University in Dubai, said.


"Both Saudi and the UAE as [among] the richest countries on per capita and home to the biggest sovereign wealth funds, create enormous growth opportunities through investments, trade and commerce."

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have continued to post economic growth despite uncertainties including high interest rates, inflation and geopolitical tensions as they focus on diversifying their economies.

Saudi Arabia's economy, which grew by 8.7 per cent in 2022, the highest annual growth rate among the world's 20 biggest economies, is expected to expand by 0.8 per cent in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The kingdom is also focusing heavily on its non-oil economy as part of its Vision 2030 diversification agenda.

Meanwhile, the UAE's economy is expected to grow 3.4 per cent in 2023 with oil GDP growth projected at 0.7 per cent and non-oil GDP at 4.5 per cent, backed by a strong performance in tourism, real estate, construction, transport, manufacturing and a surge in capital expenditure, according to a recent report from the World Bank.

The UAE becomes another Bric in the wall

The Arab world's second largest economy is signing trade deals to strengthen its ties with countries around. It is working towards signing 26 comprehensive economic partnership agreements as it seeks to attract more investment and diversify its economy.

"The image of Brics in the past was of a financially vulnerable group, beholden to the global political superpowers. The financial power of Saudi and the UAE as net exporters of capital to the rest of the world will substantially change that perception," Gary Dugan, chief investment officer at Dalma Capital, said.

"Also as a collective, we expect Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be afforded easier access to the growth markets of the Brics countries on favourable terms."

The addition of two major oil exporters to the group "will reinforce their bargaining power and influence in Opec+ while also offering the space for them to align their strategies with other Brics members", Ehsan Khoman, head of ESG, commodities and emerging markets research at MUFG, said.

Opec+, which has been playing a crucial role in balancing oil markets, includes some of the world's biggest crude producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia.

China and India, two key members of Brics, are the second and third biggest consumers of oil in the world with strong energy ties to the Gulf countries.

More bilateral trade in local currencies is also expected as the new countries join the group.

"The implication we are watching closely from the addition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt to Brics is the potential for more bilateral trade in local currencies, particularly following the UAE and India's agreement reached in July, and Egypt being in similar discussions with India already," said Carla Slim, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

Last year, the UAE and India signed agreements to establish a framework to promote the use of local currencies in cross-border transactions and boost co-operation in interlinking their payment and messaging systems.

After the deal, India began buying UAE oil in Indian rupees to boost trade between the two countries.

New world order?

Meanwhile, the calls for the overhaul of the international monetary system and the development of an alternative currency to the US dollar are expected to grow as Brics expands, according to Mr Rao.

"As the world navigates for an alternative to the US dollar, even if less relevant today, the emergence of Brics common currency can act as a major harbinger in diversifying risks away from the stronghold of the dollar," he said.

Brics is poised to assume greater influence as a powerful voice to the Global South, he added.

Ayham Kamel, head of Mena at Eurasia Group, is also bullish about the bloc wielding more influence globally.

"The prospect of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran and Egypt joining Brics creates new mechanisms that forces a degree of political co-operation by all the countries," he said.

"The Arab countries are looking for improving their global geopolitical influence and appear committed to avoiding detachment from the West."

Iran
Source: www.iranintl.com

Iran officially became a member of the China-led BRICS economic organization on Monday, as it seeks to overcome the impact of US sanctions and overcome it isolation.

In its policy of finding shelter under Chinese and Russian-dominated international organizations, Iran achieved full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in July 2022 and concurrently pursued entry into the BRICS group. Following an official invitation, Iran announced its acceptance into BRICS on August 24, 2023, with the official membership commencing on January 1, 2024.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, announced the news on Monday as an important achievement for Tehran, emphasizing the potential for economic potential BRICS can offer. Ehsan Khandouzi, Iran's Finance and Economic Affairs Minister, expressed hope for global engagement and for increased trade opportunities with BRICS countries, despite US sanctions.

Iranian officials, who feel the need to calm domestic anxieties about the economic crisis gripping the country since 2018, routinely tell citizens that BRICS could challenge the dominance of the US dollar, and alleviate the financial crisis brought about by the US sanctions. Despite these assertions, domestic markets know that the Chinese themselves heavily rely on the US dollar for trade. Lack of confidence in the foreign and economic policies of the government has played a major role in the 12-fold devaluation of the Iranian rial against major currencies since 2018.

In Iran's domestic political dynamics, BRICS is presented as a mechanism and an opportunity to challenge the United States and boost trade.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) during a virtual meeting with heads of states of BRICS countries, November 21, 2023

Despite these perspectives, skepticism remains about the practical benefits of Iran's BRICS membership, especially concerning economic implications. Geopolitical tensions, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's strained relations with the United States, complicate BRICS' role as a counterweight to the West.

During the BRICS summit in August 2023, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized bilateral cooperation and opposition to "American unilateralism." While some individuals are optimistic, Tehran observers doubt practical benefits, emphasizing the need to address relations with the US and resolve the dispute about Iran's nuclear program for meaningful membership impact. Former UN diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi has warned against illusions about potential benefits from SCO and BRICS, suggesting such beliefs could be more harmful than not being members at all.

Challenges

Not all BRICS members may be equally enthusiastic about Iran's inclusion, and not every existing member supported Iran's decision to join. Additionally, the impact of US secondary sanctions, restricting Iran's global business activities, may not be substantially alleviated by BRICS participation, especially given the organization's alignment with China and Russia, both with their own serious economic challenges and disputes with the West.

Nevertheless, Iran's energy sector is expected to experience significant changes with BRICS membership, particularly due to its major role in gas and oil production. Joining BRICS is seen as a strategic move to enhance energy trade and collaboration, especially with China and Russia. Anticipated benefits for Iran include increased energy exports, investment in energy infrastructure, and potential relief from US sanctions through the use of national currencies in energy trading.

While Iran aims to leverage BRICS membership to weaken sanctions, boost its economy, and access broader markets, experts caution that economic gains may be limited without a nuclear deal with the West. The uncertainties about the effectiveness and cohesion of BRICS policies also raise questions about the immediate and long-term benefits of Iran's membership.

Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global monitor on money laundering, announced on Friday that it has made no modifications to its blacklist, which includes Iran, Myanmar, and North Korea. Iranian economist Mohammad Mehdi Behkish has emphasized potential difficulties in business transactions with BRICS countries if the FATF issue is not resolved. He has also underscored that, despite additional countries joining BRICS, the economic significance of the United States to China will surpass that of all BRICS nations, emphasizing the necessity of easing financial restrictions for Iran to fully benefit from BRICS membership.

It is claimed that Iran's membership in BRICS represents a strategic alliance with China and Russia, with opportunities for enhanced infrastructure investment and commerce. The goal to change the dynamics of the global energy market and lessen reliance on the US currency in energy-related transactions is supported by China and Russia. Higher energy exports and the possible use of national currencies as a hedge against US sanctions are anticipated benefits. However, Iran or any other country, needs revenues in hard currencies for most imports, and replacing the US dollar in energy exports does not seem to be a wise policy.

Moreover, considering the significant trade volumes they maintain with the United States, some BRICS members would be reluctant to take on economic risks in their dealings with Iran. This complicated situation highlights the numerous difficulties and factors that go along with Iran's involvement in BRICS, calling for a systematic and careful strategy to deal with these complications.

Egypt
Source: www.sis.gov.eg

Russian Ambassador to Egypt Georgy Borisenko asserted the importance of Egypt's membership in BRICS which started in 2024.

Egypt will contribute to taking important decisions on developing the world in the future especially in the field of economy and coordination on its foreign policy, Borisenko said in statements on Tuesday 2/1/2024.

The member states of the bloc want to establish a multipole system to be more just instead of the single-pole system, he said, pointing out that the BRICS started using local currencies in trading and implementing economic development projects.

Using the local currencies will be useful to all the countries that joined BRICS recently including Egypt to solve the problem of hard currency, he said.

The BRICS member states are working on creating suitable circumstances for mutual investments with the countries, he said, adding that Egypt would get more investments and capitals from China, India and Russia.

He said that 2023 witnessed an intensified political dialogue between Egypt and Russia, adding that there is continuous dialogue between the foreign ministers of both countries.

The Russian investments in Egypt are estimated at 4.5 billion dollars in addition to 7 billion dollars expected to flow into the industrial zone investments, he said.

The trade exchange between both countries reached 6.1 billion dollars in 2022, he said, adding that it would reach 7.2 billion dollars by the end of 2023.

On tourism, he said that the number of Russian tourists who spent their vacations in Egypt reached 1.5 million tourists by the end of 2023, adding that 18 daily flights between the Russian cities and the resorts in Egypt.

Iran
Source: en.irna.ir

Moscow, IRNA -- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Coordination on Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari has said that Iran's membership in the BRICS bloc of emerging economies can significantly boost capacities of the organization in the fields of transit, energy, oil, gas and modern technologies.

Mehdi Safari said in a recently interview with the Russian news agency RIA Novosti that BRICS is becoming a market half of the world's size.

He said the bloc now include the biggest producers and consumers of oil and gas in the world, adding that it will play an important role in the global energy market.

He also referred to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which Iran became one of its permanent members in 2023, as a regional market that can create a win-win condition for all member countries.

Both BRICS and SCO have proposed Iran to take over leadership role at some of their committees there, the Iranian diplomat added.

Iran and five other countries became full members of BRICS as of January 1, 2024.

The bloc was originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Russia
Source: valdaiclub.com

Both during the Russian presidency and in subsequent years, the task of further optimising the BRICS+ format, as well as possible new rounds of expansion, is slated to become a priority, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.

The current geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, which obviously won't end in the coming years, urgently puts on the agenda the issue of global alternatives. This question has now acquired more than just theoretical or futurological significance. For Russia, it is directly related to how successfully the country can develop in the current situation. Therefore, we are talking primarily about the feasibility, sustainability and effectiveness of alternative models of global socio-economic development, the world order and the perception of value narratives.

Russia is now testing all these models in its own practice. Naturally, the viability of such models in the future will depend on its success or failure. The key moment here is to what extent these alternative models will be accepted and supported by other countries of the Non-West and Global South. To what extent does the Russian approach (even taking its military-political aspect out of the equation) meet their national interests, and is it harmonious with their aspirations? Russia's BRICS presidency in 2024 will obviously raise questions about the promotion of these alternatives both in the value dimension and in the political practice of the Global Non-West and South.

In this regard, the directions for the further evolution of BRICS, which has already become a symbol of a global alternative, are of particular interest. Moreover, it is quite an attractive symbol, judging by the intention of a number of countries to join BRICS. All communiqués of various BRICS summits over the past years focus on the value alternatives. In this regard, it is quite possible to talk about a completely holistic and systemic value platform for BRICS. It is based on the principle of equality in the global economy and politics, on the confirmation of the right to development of all countries of the world, and not just the "golden West", on the struggle against exploitation and neo-colonialism. There is also a more or less explicit emphasis on the moral duty of the "golden West" and its moral obligation to assist in the development of the Global South. In recent years, in connection with large-scale plans for a global green transformation, one can increasingly see in these documents a concern that developing countries could become victims of the policies being pursued. This is because measures to limit and phase out the use of fossil fuels and restrictions on livestock farming to reduce methane emissions could become a serious obstacle to the future development of countries in the Global South if they are not provided with compensating mechanisms. Thereby the very right to development, which underlies the BRICS value platform, will be undermined.

At the same time, if these BRICS value priorities themselves do not cause differences of opinion, and all countries are unanimous in their approval, then the question of the readiness of various countries for their political advancement is more dialectical. Sometimes in the media and in the expert community one can see the question: what has BRICS really done over all these years, except for publishing communiqués on values? Here we can really say that all BRICS member countries pursue their own sovereign policies, which do not completely coincide with each other. BRICS itself is not an intergovernmental organisation; it operates in a much more informal and free association format. We have already examined the problem of political solidarity (or lack thereof) between BRICS members using the example of these countries voting for resolutions in the UN General Assembly. And there, to put it mildly, this situation is not so clear. It becomes even less clear if you look at the voting results of the new BRICS members who will join the association on January 1, 2024. Thus, the topic of internal political consolidation of the BRICS countries becomes really important if we talk about the fact that the association not only puts forward its own value programme, but also jointly fights for its implementation.

If we move from geopolitics to socio-economic projects, here BRICS, too, from a certain point of view, is only at the beginning of its journey. The New Development Bank is intensifying its work. In addition, one of the key tasks for 2024, written down in the communique of the previous summit, is the development of efficient mechanisms to increase the use of national currencies in mutual trade between BRICS members. For Russia, for obvious reasons, this topic is acutely relevant. In this regard, the next step in the economic consolidation of the BRICS will be judged by how successfully and consistently these new mechanisms can be implemented.

However, returning to the beginning, one cannot help but note that even in its current state, as a value platform, BRICS is very important for world politics. This explains the large number of applications for membership from countries of the Global Non-West. Moreover, it is important that almost all of the applications were submitted after February 24, 2022. Therefore, both during the Russian presidency and in subsequent years, the task of further optimising the BRICS+ format, as well as possible new rounds of expansion, is slated to become a priority. It is important here not to alienate from BRICS those countries that applied but were not accepted, so that they do not end up with grievances and misunderstandings.

By the way, in these two vectors of BRICS development (consolidation and expansion) one can also see a kind of dialectical contradiction. For the tasks of internal consolidation, as integration theory teaches us, by and large, the fewer countries involved, the better. It is much more important here that these countries share common goals in practical politics and economics. But on the other hand, for the value platform the situation is the opposite, here the more countries that join, the better. This is extremely important in emphasising the global and inclusive nature of BRICS. Incidentally, to some extent, the current situation for BRICS can be called similar to what the European Union faced in the early 2000s, when it put forward its "Deepening and Widening" strategy. It is clear that formally such an approach contradicts the laws of physics, but global politics is not physics, and the world political system (if a system analysis is applicable to it at all) differs from physical and chemical systems. It has its own dialectics and its own interpretation of the laws of thermodynamics. Only time will tell.

We should not forget that in addition to BRICS in general, regional trends in the formation of alternative socio-economic and political development in the countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America also attract great attention. One should not discount those alternatives to the neoliberal mainstream that are now being formulated within the West itself. It seems that 2024 will bring a lot of new indicators in this sense. All these issues will be the focus of the "Global Alternatives" expert programme of the Valdai Discussion Club in the coming year. We hope that our readers and viewers of our videos find it interesting!

South Africa
Source: www.iol.co.za

Jaya Josie, Advisor, China Africa Center, Zhejiang University International Business School (ZIBS), Adjunct Professor University of the Western Cape and University of Venda

The year 2023 started off with celebrating the 25th Anniversary of official diplomatic relations between China and South Africa in January. It was also the year of multilateralism in practice in the times of global conflict.

Multilateralism is an approach that seeks to avoid political disputes among countries and seeks to ensure a better utilization of global resources. In 2023 the world was faced with the threat of another world war and global conflagration with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the war in the Gaza and the West Bank in Palestine.

In both instances China and South Africa have sought to reassert the principles of multilateralism in an attempt to end both conflicts. Using the multilateral platforms of the United Nations, the African Union (AU), BRICS group, other fora China and South Africa have worked to promote the idea of peace negotiations using a multilateral approach to development and global governance.

Both countries have sought to build a more equitable and just architecture to meet the common aspirations of all countries. Over the past year China has worked tirelessly to promote development, peace, cooperation and collaboration in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Eurasia, and Africa through dialogue and initiatives such as the BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

In Africa South Africa has played a key role in promoting and coordinating peace initiatives, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and, even participating in peace initiatives in resolving the devastating conflict between Israel and Palestine.

In an interview in the Wall Street Journal in 2015, President Xi Jinping pointed to the necessity for a multilateral approach to development and global governance "to build a more equitable and just architecture that meets the common aspirations of all countries." (Wall Street Journal, 22.09.2015).

He went on to say that, "The dreams of various peoples,…, are sources of inspiration for them, and all these dreams create important opportunities for China. He highlighted China's inextricable integration in the world economy as an important element in this new path and China's commitment to a more multilateral approach to development.

"In today's world, it is impossible for China to develop on its own; only when the world thrives can China prosper. China has never been absent in efforts to promote world economic recovery, seek political settlement of international and regional hotspots and respond to various global problems and challenges. This is what the international community expects of China, and to do so is China's responsibility".

It has been a momentous year in many respects for both China and South Africa with both countries trying to ensure their commitment to multilateralism in the midst of geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The year was also a year that saw major economic and political changes in Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Following the 15th BRICS Summit in August 2023 held in South Africa, the BRICS group became a strong contender for leading a new multipolar group that could promote multilateralism.

The original five members of the BRICS group invited Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran and, Argentina to join the group in January 2024. Another major outcome of the 15th BRICS Summit was the resolution for BRICS member states to reduce their vulnerability and dependence on the US$ as the dominant reserve currency for trade and, rather use own currencies for trade and investment.

The BRICS New Development Bank immediately accepted and adopted the policy so that member states may use own currencies for raising debt and investments. Today many countries in the Global South and some BRICS countries feel exposed because the US$ is being used as an instrument to exert political pressure on countries through sanctions.

The year also saw China and South Africa consolidate their relationship from a strategic partnership, to a higher level comprehensive strategic partnership. Both countries are currently working towards a stage of building a high-level China-South Africa community with a shared future.

Through this partnership the countries will move towards cooperating on key issues of trade and investment to address some of the major mutual challenges. For South Africa and Africa the challenge of sustainable development with high unemployment, inequality and poverty remains top of the agenda.

The BRICS group provides a multilateral alternative that many states see as a viable alternative to the current world order. Although Argentina has subsequently declined membership of the group following the election of its new President, there are at least fourteen other countries that have submitted applications to join the group.

Reports in 2023 by the IMF and the World Bank both projected that the BRICS collective economic performance and geopolitical relevance surpassed the G7 and other western dominated groups. South Africa, asserting its leadership role, led an African Union delegation on a peace mission to Ukraine and Russia in 2023 following China's and Brazil's initial attempts to promote peace talks and seek a negotiated settlement.

In the Middle East China played a key role in negotiating peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia and is negotiating an end to the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. In the Sahel region of Africa western influence is diminishing as countries there seek new alliances and partners to extricate themselves from extreme underdevelopment and poverty.

Further to the East of Africa on 7 October, the Palestinian struggle for self-determination exploded in the Gaza and the West Bank with devastating consequences for the Palestinian and Israeli populations with over 21000 Palestinians and almost 1300 Israelis killed so far.

South Africa has brought a case of genocide against the Israeli government for its attacks on civilians, especially children and women. At the United Nations General assembly there was a majority vote against Israel's bombardment and attacks on Palestinians.

In the UN Security Council China has registered its opposition to killing and displacement of innocent Palestinian civilians. Both countries are providing crucial humanitarian aid and support for the affected Palestinian population. Both countries are urgently pushing for a ceasefire and an end to hostilities.

On the economic front both China and South have taken their comprehensive partnership to a new level with increased two-way trade and investment. In particular 2023 saw China commit to support South Africa overcome its challenges of electricity blackouts or loadshedding that has been plaguing the country. New trade agreements were signed and the countries are exploring the expanded use of own currencies to move away from dependence on the US$.

Over the past year SWIFT, the financial messaging service, reported in November 2023 that the Chinese Renminbi has become the fourth most active currency for international payments by value. The Renminbi was used in 4.61% of transactions and overtook the Japanese yen's share that has decreased from 3.41% from 3.91%.

In the meantime, according to IMF data, the share of US$ in central bank reserves has continued to decrease and, dropped to 59.2% in the third quarter of 2023. This drop seems to come in the midst of a fearful trend, especially among emerging and developing countries, of over-dependence and vulnerability to the US$ and the Euro in the light of the US and EU sanctions against Russia in 2022 and 2023.

The SWIFT report also revealed that other top currencies declined in keeping with the US$'s slide from 47. 25% in October 2023 to 47.08% with the euro's share falling from 23.36% to 22.95%, and the UK pound dropping to 7.15% from 7.33%. Alarm is rearing its head amongst Western financial institutions as many countries move towards using own currencies.

In 2023 the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warned that Russia's increasing trade using the Renminbi in response to Western sanctions may erode the strength of the US$. This is a real concern for financial institutions whose bond holdings and investments are in the US$.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is one of the 30 central banks that holds a bilateral currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). Such agreements facilitates the use of cross-border payments and borrowing using own currencies.

While 2023 was indeed a difficult year with many global conflicts and other upheavals, South Africa and China sought to find ways through the BRICS and the BRI to create conditions for a more multilateral approach that avoids political disputes but creates conditions for a common and shared prosperity for developing and emerging economies.

The new comprehensive strategic partnerships between China and South Africa and, between China and other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America provides the opportunity in 2024 for the world to witness that the international relations can overcome challenges through the peaceful use of multilateralism as a better way to use global resources in the interests of humanity in general.

China
Source: www.globaltimes.cn

China is confident in the future development of BRICS cooperation, a spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday, after the BRICS memberships of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran and Ethiopia officially took effect.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that since its inception 18 years ago, BRICS cooperation mechanism has increased cohesiveness and influence and become a positive and stable force for good in international affairs.

The fact that BRICS now has 10 member states shows exactly its bright prospect, said Wang.

"BRICS decided to expand its membership, which serves the common aspiration of emerging markets and developing countries, and follows the global trend towards multipolarity. We will work with BRICS partners to strive for new results in greater BRICS cooperation," the spokesperson noted.

BRICS, originally comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, got five new members, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia on Monday. Argentina was also due to join BRICS on Monday after receiving an invitation in August 2023. However, newly elected President Javier Milei announced on Friday that Argentina would not join the BRICS framework of developing economies.

Although Milei stated that the moment was not "opportune" for Argentina to join as a full member, he said that he will seek to "intensify bilateral ties" with BRICS countries to increase "trade and investment flows."

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that the BRICS group of major emerging economies is attracting further support from "like-minded countries" sharing its underlying principles as his country assumed the bloc's chairmanship for 2024.

In a statement published by the Kremlin, Putin said these underlying principles are "sovereign equality, respect for the chosen path of development, mutual consideration of interests, openness, consensus, the aspiration to form a multipolar international order and a fair global financial and trade system, and the pursuit of collective solutions to top challenges of our time."

"We will spare no effort to ensure that, while preserving traditions and being guided by the experience gained by the association in years past, we facilitate the harmonious integration of new participants in all formats of its activities," Putin said.

In a survey the Global Times conducted from December 4 to 15 in 2023, 96.7 percent of the respondents agreed that the expansion of BRICS membership is positive. The expansion process of the BRICS mechanism has further strengthened the voice of the Global South. Over 95.1 percent of the respondents believe that the Global South could become an important force influencing the global development pattern in the next 10 years.

Feng Xingke, secretary general of the World Financial Forum and director of the Center for BRICS and Global Governance, said that the Global South has become an important force influencing the international political and economic landscape, which is an unchangeable fact and trend. Global South members adopt a positive non-alignment policy, and their strategic autonomy is continuously strengthening, which will play an important role and have an impact on the multipolar global governance pattern and the democratization of international relations.

China
Source: news.cgtn.com

Editor's note: Shahid Hussain, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the founder and CEO of the UAE-based company Green Proposition. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The recent evolution of the BRICS bloc is a defining moment in global geopolitics. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia, all of which have formally become members since January 1, 2024, marks a transformative shift, signaling a march toward a more inclusive and diverse global order. While some perceive this expansion as mere noise, it's vital to recognize the harmonious ensemble it represents – a convergence of voices from the Global South resonating on the grand stage of world affairs.

BRICS emerged over a decade ago, coalescing around shared aspirations for a multipolar world. Originating with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, its founding intent was to give voice to emerging markets which historically are not heard because of the dominance of Western powers. Now, with the addition of five more nations, the collective grows, amplifying the representation of diverse cultures, economies and strategic interests.

At the core of BRICS' expansion lies the acknowledgment that a fairer world order necessitates active participation from nations beyond traditional power hubs. These newcomers bring not just economic prowess but also distinct perspectives and invaluable experiences, enriching the discourse on global governance.

Critics argue that this expansion might escalate existing geopolitical tensions. However, the essence of BRICS revolves around cooperation, consensus-building, and mutual respect – values that underpin constructive engagement. By broadening its membership, BRICS seeks to create a platform for dialogue, transcending historical divides and fostering understanding amid diversity.

Russia, currently holding the chairmanship of BRICS for 2024, emphasizes cooperation and inclusivity. President Vladimir Putin has underscored the association's expansion to 10 nations, citing it as "a strong indication of the growing authority of the association." Putin outlined three key areas where Russia will continue to promote the BRICS partnership: politics and security, economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian contacts. The priorities also span diverse sectors such as science, technology, healthcare and environmental protection, signifying a robust commitment to multifaceted cooperation.

The Russian president emphasized the core principles uniting BRICS – sovereign equality, mutual respect, multipolarity, and the pursuit of fair global systems. The integration of new participants aimed to uphold established traditions while fostering harmony within the association.

A significant initiative involved creating a new category for BRICS partner countries, aiming to engage with approximately 30 interested nations. This strategic move aimed to expand the multifaceted agenda of BRICS, encouraging diverse participation.

Foreign policy coordination and joint efforts to address global challenges emerged as central objectives. Putin highlighted the implementation of the Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership 2025 and the Action Plan for BRICS Innovation Cooperation 2021–2024 for ensuring energy and food security, and fortifying BRICS' role in the international monetary system. Over 200 events across Russia will mark the chairmanship, inviting global representatives to partake.

Russia's vision for its BRICS chairmanship underscores an unwavering commitment to expanding collaboration, embracing diverse perspectives, and collectively tackling global challenges. The agenda emphasizes inclusivity, mutual benefit, and concerted efforts toward fostering equitable global development and security.

The timing of this expansion aligns with an urgent need for a more inclusive and robust global structure. The COVID-19 crisis laid bare the vulnerabilities of an unequal world. BRICS, with its focus on economic collaboration and progress, offers a promising path for unified action in addressing pressing issues like healthcare, climate change and sustainable development.

While dissenting voices, such as Argentina's withdrawal, highlight the complexities of aligning diverse national interests within a coalition, these differences should not overshadow the broader narrative of convergence and shared purpose that the BRICS expansion embodies.

Amid a world witnessing a recalibration of power dynamics, the BRICS expansion isn't dissonant; rather, it represents the symphony of a multipolar world order. Embracing diverse viewpoints and fostering partnerships across continents isn't a challenge but a necessity for a more inclusive and resilient global community.

In an age defined by interconnectedness, the BRICS expansion presents a promising crescendo – a harmonious chorus of nations amplifying the voice of the Global South and guiding us toward a future where collaboration triumphs over discord, and unity prevails over division.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on Twitter to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)

Russia
Source: en.kremlin.ru

On January 1, Russia was passed the baton of the BRICS chairmanship, an association which, according to the decision adopted by the 15^th BRICS Summit in August 2022, now includes 10 countries. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS as new full members which is a strong indication of the growing authority of the association and its role in international affairs.

BRICS is attracting an ever increasing number of supporters and like-minded countries that share its underlying principles, namely, sovereign equality, respect for the chosen path of development, mutual consideration of interests, openness, consensus, the aspiration to form a multipolar international order and a fair global financial and trade system, and pursuit of collective solutions to top challenges of our time.

The Russian 2024 BRICS Chairmanship under the motto Strengthening Multilateralism for Equitable Global Development and Security will act precisely in this manner and focus on positive and constructive cooperation with all countries concerned.

We will spare no effort to ensure that, while preserving traditions and being guided by the experience gained by the association in years past, we facilitate the harmonious integration of new participants in all formats of its activities.

Of course, we will consider the degree to which many other countries, about 30 of them, are prepared to join the BRICS multidimensional agenda in one form or another. To this end, we will start working on the modalities of a new category of BRICS partner country.

In general, Russia will continue to promote all aspects of the BRICS partnership in three key areas: politics and security, economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian contacts.

Naturally, we will focus on enhancing foreign policy coordination among the member countries and on jointly seeking effective responses to the challenges and threats to international and regional security and stability. We will contribute to the practical implementation of the Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership 2025 and the Action Plan for BRICS Innovation Cooperation 2021–2024 for ensuring energy and food security, enhancing the role of BRICS in the international monetary system, expanding interbank cooperation and expanding the use of national currencies in mutual trade.

Our priorities include promoting cooperation in science, high technology, healthcare, environmental protection, culture, sports, youth exchanges, and civil society.

In total, over 200 events of different levels and types will be held in many Russian cities as part of the chairmanship. We encourage representatives of all countries interested in cooperating with our organisation to take part in them. The BRICS Summit in Kazan in October will be the culmination of our chairmanship.

As Russia assumes its chairmanship, it looks forward to working productively with all countries in the BRICS orbit.

China
Source: www.china.org.cn

The BRICS doubled its size after more than 40 countries showed interest or formally applied to join the young international organization, signaling an evolution toward a more multipolar world.

The Global South, designated as the word of the year 2023 by the Financial Times, is clearly treading its own path to weather a transforming global order.

Global South in ascent

A new pole of the global economy is forming. Before expansion, BRICS states accounted for 32 percent of global GDP, more than 15 percent of global trade, and more than 40 percent of the world's population.

According to statistics from the Britain-based Acorn Macro Consulting, based on purchasing power parity, the gross domestic product of the BRICS countries before expansion exceeded that of the G7.

The latest ranking by the International Monetary Fund shows that Brazil has surpassed Canada to become the world's ninth-largest economy. After expansion, the BRICS nations will further consolidate Global South strength, demonstrating more robust economic prowess.

The IMF estimates also showed that based on purchasing power parity, the world's top five economies in 2030 will, in sequence, be China, the United States, India, Japan and Indonesia.

Global South leaders are pushing against foreign interventions in geopolitical affairs. The readmission of Syria into the Arab League in May after 11 years of suspension signals a new consensus among Arab countries -- only a regional solution can end the protracted crisis.

In June, Latin America and Caribbean leaders jointly urged Washington to end its illegal political, commercial and financial blockade on Cuba.

A report from the World Trade Organization also suggested that developed economies are still major participants in world trade but no longer dominate.

"I think this is a historic moment for humanity -- in which, for the first time, countries from the South may use their strength," said Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before BRICS' Johannesburg summit in August 2023.

Faltering steps of West

Along the wax comes the wane. Over the years, with Brexit, divisions in the United States, the spread of Western populism, the surge of right-wing extremism, and escalating racial conflicts and hate crimes, social turmoil and disorder have proven to be common in Western countries.

The Ukraine crisis and the most serious Israel-Palestine conflict in decades have also left the West struggling.

"The internal stress" in the West-dominated world order is leading to "more doubts around the world about its effectiveness and legitimacy," said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Advisers.

At the 2023 Munich Security Conference, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed "shock" at how much credibility the West was losing from the Global South before the French ambassador was expelled from Niger, French troops pulled out from Mali and the coup epidemic spread to a few more francophone West African countries later in the year.

Former colonies now harbor a collective sense of disillusionment, if not anger and resentment, toward the Euro-Atlantic hegemony. This sentiment is rooted in the solutions it provided, or the lack of which, to the global challenges that unfairly burden people at the bottom of the global wealth pyramid.

Along the Black Sea, U.S.-dominated NATO is seeking unilateral security at the cost of having more kids going to bed on an empty stomach in Africa and the Middle East.

Along the Red Sea, Washington watches the humanitarian crisis explode and spill over while continuously curbing international efforts at the UN to protect civilians and restore peace.

"They lost credibility with the veto. What is good enough for Ukraine is not good enough for Palestine. The veto told us that Ukrainian lives are more valuable than Palestinian ones," an African diplomat was quoted by Reuters after the United States vetoed the "humanitarian pause" at the Security Council on Oct. 18, 2023.

The old order led by the West can no longer keep pace with the times, and developing countries are increasingly aware of the reality.

Western research institutions and media outlets wonder if this is the beginning of a new world order.

Voices louder, getting heard

Last August, media outlets worldwide were preoccupied with the wildfires that ravished the historical town of Lahaina, Hawaii.

Only a few weeks later, the flooding that hit Eastern Libya, killing more than 4,300 people, received disproportionately small attention in the West.

Global South countries have endured such injustices for far too long and are speaking up on the global stage.

"The days when a few nations set the agenda and expected others to fall in line are over." Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India's foreign minister, said at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly.

And the voice is catching the attention of Global North leaders, observed Anjali Dayal, an associate professor of international politics at the New York-based Fordham University.

"We saw that more leaders were paying attention to the biggest constituency of UN countries -- countries that are not big powers but that suffer the biggest consequences and very seldom get to cast the decisive vote," she said.

"Increasingly, the poor are saying to the rich that your priorities won't mean more to us until ours mean much more to you," said Howard W. French, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.

Cooperation for better

While calling out the West for its broken promises, including an annual 100 billion U.S. dollars in climate funding, the Global South is building an alternative path forward for South-South cooperation.

In 2023, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a leading international infrastructure investor, priced its first five-year Climate Adaptation Bond and raised 335 million dollars. Platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition and the South-South Cooperation Center for Technology Transfer also assist developing countries with clean energy governance, planning and capacity building.

Green cooperation is only part of the closer South-South partnership. With a total value of 4 billion dollars, China has set up a Global Development and South-South Cooperation Fund and has implemented more than 130 projects in nearly 60 countries, including Ethiopia and Pakistan, covering poverty reduction, food security and epidemic prevention.

Three decades ago, the pioneer in decolonial theory, Argentine-Mexican philosopher and historian Enrique Dussel, elaborated on the Eurocentrism in the concept of modernity: "Modernity as such was 'born' when Europe was in a position to pose itself against an Other ... Europe could constitute itself as a unified ego exploring, conquering, colonizing an alterity that gave back its image of self."

Three decades later, in a confident and united voice, the Global South is resisting universal modernity or the West's roadmap for modernization.

As the Gulf News put it, there is "a sense of urgency by countries to ... strengthen partnerships away from Western influence."

Russia
Source: brics-plus-analytics.org


The expansion of BRICS that entered into force in the beginning of 2024 raised multiple questions regarding the unifying theme behind the composition of the enlarged grouping. One of the more popular unifying themes discussed in the context of the 2024 BRICS expansion was the rise in the weight of the bloc in global oil production on the back of the accession of such oil producing heavy-weights as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The hope, however, is that there is more behind the BRICS expansion than merely building more geopolitical muscle and magnifying the bloc's role in commodity markets. Perhaps even more important may be the role of the expanded BRICS in the migration flows and the human capital development across the Global South. With each BRICS+ member featuring as an important regional hub of "human capital" reserves and labour resources in the developing world, there may be scope for the expanded grouping to look into targeted economic policies to address the widening labour shortages and greater coordination in the sphere of migration.

The role of BRICS in migration flows has been significant well before the 2024 expansion. In particular, India being the world's most populous economy, featured as an economy with the largest migrant diaspora in the world, the largest remittance flows in the world (USD 125 bn) and sizeable migration flows into developed and developing economies[1]. China, the second most populous economy in the world, also featured as one of the largest sources of migrants and as of 2020 was estimated to have the fourth largest migrant diaspora in the world and third in terms of the size of remittances (USD 50 bn)[2]. Russia is one of the largest recipients of labour migrants in the world according to the UN and is also the source of sizeable remittances to economies such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan (according to the World Bank the share of remittances to GDP in 2022 exceeded 50% for Tajikistan)[3]. At the same time Russia is one of the largest sources of highly qualified migrants in the world economy, with its migrant diaspora estimated to be the third largest in the world as of 2020.

All three Eurasian BRICS economies (Russia, China, India) represent a sizeable share of the world pool of IT specialists, including those working abroad. South Africa features as Africa's top migration destination and attracts the highest number of international migrants on the continent[4]. The only exception on the migration front within BRICS5 appears to be Brazil, with relatively low inflows of international migrants[5]. At the same time, Brazil has the largest African diaspora in the world – something that makes the country's relationship with Africa special.

The addition of new members to BRICS further reinforces the role of the grouping as the source/destination of key migration flows across the Global South. In particular, the UAE and Saudi Arabia feature as the first and the third largest destinations for migrants from India. Both Arab newcomers to the BRICS+ are the major destinations of migration flows in their Gulf/Middle East region[6]. The United Arab Emirates has the highest share of immigrants in the world (at nearly 90% of the population), with the UAE and Saudi Arabia serving as the second and third largest sources of remittances in the world after the US. Ethiopia, another newcomer to the BRICS club, is the second largest recipient of migrants in Eastern Africa and the second most populous economy in Africa. It is also a major source of migrants for such BRICS economies as Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Finally, Egypt and Iran are the most populous nations in the Middle East, with Egypt also forming the largest community of non-citizens from the Arab world in the UAE. Egypt is also in the top 5 of the world's largest recipients of remittances with USD 24 bn[7].

So why is labour migration so important for BRICS? One of the key reasons is the worsening demographics in some of the key BRICS members such as China and Russia. The UN's demographic figures suggest that China's population may drop from more than 1.4 billion to 1.313 billion by 2050 on the back of a decreasing birth rate. In Russia declining fertility is projected by the UN to result in a population decline from 148.1 million in 1995 to 121.3 million in 2050[8]. China in particular is faced not only with a sizeable decline in its population due to earlier years of "one-child policy", but also with an increasingly determined drive to attract top talent across the global economy to be able to compete in the technological race with the West. Another important reason why migration is crucial for BRICS is the mutual dependency of some of the bloc's economies as sources and destinations of migration flows – in particular across such trajectories as India-UAE/Saudi Arabia as well as Egypt/Ethiopia-UAE/Saudi Arabia. Still another factor is that the development of a coordinated policy framework for migration could enable the BRICS to strengthen their economic and regional cooperation and serve as a platform for closer trade and financial ties with regional neighbors as well as BRICS+ partners.

What does the migration track offer the BRICS+ grouping in the future? One possible area is the New Development Bank looking into the possibility of increasing the share of investment projects directed at "human capital" development and migration-related infrastructure. There may also be a case for some of the BRICS economies with sizeable migration flows to explore the possibilities of issuing "diaspora bonds". The BRICS CRA could look into evaluating the macroeconomic aspects of labour migration and remittances for BRICS economies and their regional partners. The migration dimension may prove important not only for BRICS, but for the broader global economy as competition for attracting labour resources and talent intensifies amid demographic pressures. At the end of the day, the development potential harboured in the human capital reserves of the Global South exceeds the dividends from oil or other mineral resource wealth. A growing prominence of the migration/labor agenda may serve to shift the focus for BRICS away from geopolitics and commodity platforms towards greater economic cooperation and "human capital-centricity" in launching new initiatives.

Image by Francesco_Vignati via Pixabay

[1] https://www.economist.com/international/2023/06/12/indias-diaspora-is-bigger-and-more-influential-than-any-in-history

[2] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/12/18/remittance-flows-grow-2023-slower-pace-migration-development-brief

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=TJ

[4] https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/African-Migration-Trends-2023.pdf

[5]https://robuenosaires.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl626/files/documents/Migration_Trends_final.pdf

[6] https://www.migrationdataportal.org/regional-data-overview/eastern-africa

[7] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/12/18/remittance-flows-grow-2023-slower-pace-migration-development-brief

[8]https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/replacement-chap4-ru.pdf